- Payton Talbott is -700 and Deiveson Figueiredo is +500 in the co-main event, the biggest favorite on the main card.
- Talbott was about -600 earlier this week, so the move raises his break-even win rate from about 86% to 87.5%.
- Natalia Silva is -198 and Wang Cong is +168 for the 125-pound belt Valentina Shevchenko gave up, the closest-priced fight on the main card.
- The main-event total is Over 4.5 rounds at -300, which cashes only if the fight lasts deep into round 5.
SALT LAKE CITY – Payton Talbott is a -700 favorite over Deiveson Figueiredo in the UFC 332 co-main event Saturday, a price that has shortened from about -600 earlier this week.
Talbott’s Price Shortens
The latest board has Talbott at -700 and Figueiredo at +500. The move adds under two points to the win rate a Talbott bet needs to break even, from about 86% to 87.5%, so a bettor who liked him at -600 had the better number.
At -700, Talbott is the biggest favorite on the main card in this week’s UFC odds, and second on the full 14-bout card only to Jacobe Smith’s -950 on the early prelims.
| Main-card favorite | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Payton Talbott over Deiveson Figueiredo | -700 | 87.5% |
| Roberto Soldic over Khaos Williams | -280 | 73.7% |
| Esteban Ribovics over King Green | -235 | 70.1% |
| Ateba Gautier over Roman Kopylov | -205 | 67.2% |
| Natalia Silva over Wang Cong | -198 | 66.4% |
What The Record Has To Cover
A -700 bet on Talbott has to win 87.5% of the time to break even. His 11-1 record clears that at 91.7%, though 12 fights is a small sample, and his one loss was a unanimous decision to Raoni Barcelos on Jan. 18, 2025, according to UFC.com.
Talbott, 28, is ranked No. 12 at bantamweight, three spots below the No. 9 Figueiredo, so the price is a bet on age and form rather than rankings. Figueiredo, 38, has lost four of his last five, UFC.com shows, most recently by second-round guillotine to Song Yadong on May 30 after a unanimous decision defeat against Umar Nurmagomedov on Jan. 24.
The former two-time flyweight champion still has 18 finishes in 25 wins, and that history is what the +500 pays for.
Silva’s Price Barely Moves
Silva is -198 and Wang +168, barely changed from -195 and +165 earlier this week. The two meet in what the UFC lists as a women’s flyweight title bout for the belt Valentina Shevchenko vacated in September because of injury.
Silva, 29, is ranked No. 1 and is 20-5-1, with an 8-0 UFC record and a 14-fight winning streak. Wang, 34, is ranked No. 8 and is 10-1. At -198, Silva is the smallest favorite on the main card, so a No. 1 contender on a 14-fight streak earns less of a premium than Ateba Gautier or Roberto Soldic.
The Totals Lean Long
| Market | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Goes the distance (Silva-Wang) | -250 | 71.4% |
| Over 4.5 rounds (Silva-Wang) | -300 | 75.0% |
| Under 4.5 rounds (Silva-Wang) | +220 | 31.3% |
| Goes the distance (Talbott-Figueiredo) | +115 | 46.5% |
| Over 2.5 rounds (Talbott-Figueiredo) | -120 | 54.5% |
| Under 2.5 rounds (Talbott-Figueiredo) | -110 | 52.4% |
The main event is priced to last. Silva’s last five wins and Wang’s last four all went to the scorecards, according to UFC.com, and none of either fighter’s recent fights went past round 3. Over 4.5 rounds at -300 has to land 75% of the time to break even, and it cashes only if the fight lasts deep into round 5. The Under at +220 pays $220 on $100 for any stoppage before then.
The co-main total is close to a coin flip. Talbott’s last three fights, including unanimous decision wins over Henry Cejudo on Dec. 6 and Felipe Lima on June 28, 2025, all went the full 15 minutes, even though seven of his 11 wins came by knockout. That history fits an Over at -120 and an Under at -110, and it means a -700 bet on Talbott can cash at the final bell as easily as with a stoppage.
UFC 332 takes place Saturday, Oct. 3, at the Delta Center, with the main card starting at 8 p.m. Eastern on Paramount+. Which sportsbooks can take a bet on the card depends on the state, and States With Online Sports Betting tracks where online wagering is legal, with more U.S. betting coverage at USA Gambling Sites.