- The Golden State Valkyries are +290 for the WNBA title, with the Atlanta Dream, Las Vegas Aces and Liberty at +300.
- New York closed the series 2-0 with an 87-71 win, and Minnesota no longer appears on the championship board.
- The Liberty shortened to +300 from +550 after the sweep, while the Indiana Fever went to +900 from +1600.
- Breanna Stewart is +450 for Finals MVP, level with Gabby Williams, while A’ja Wilson leads that market at +375.
NEW YORK – The Golden State Valkyries are the new favorite in the WNBA championship odds at +290 after the New York Liberty, seeded eighth, finished off the Minnesota Lynx in two games Tuesday night, and no No. 8 seed had ever eliminated a No. 1 seed before.
Both Wins Came by 16 Points
Tuesday’s 87-71 final at Barclays Center in Brooklyn followed a 91-75 Liberty win in Sunday’s Game 1, so a Minnesota team that finished 33-11, the top mark in the league, lost both games by 16 to a 26-18 opponent. ESPN and NBC Sports each called it the first time a No. 8 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed, and NBC Sports noted that many earlier playoff formats never let those seeds meet before the league moved to its eight-team bracket in 2022.
Jonquel Jones led New York with 21 points and 13 rebounds, Stewart added 21 and Sabrina Ionescu 18. Stewart scored 34 in Game 1, so the Liberty’s best player produced 55 points across the sweep.
Minnesota’s top options never found a rhythm. Courtney Williams needed 17 shots for her 18 points and Napheesa Collier 14 shots for 14, and rookie Olivia Miles went 1-of-8. That is roughly a point per shot from the players the Lynx lean on most, in the game that ended their season.
Four Teams Within 10 Points Of Price
Across USA gambling sites, the WNBA championship board now lists seven teams, down from eight, with the Valkyries at +290 and the Dream, Aces and Liberty one notch behind at +300. The gap is 10 points of price, so the change at the top is a formality and the market is treating this as a four-way race. Golden State was +800 in late August, when it visited the Sun holding the No. 2 seed.
| Team | Odds | Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Golden State Valkyries | +290 | +375 |
| Atlanta Dream | +300 | +425 |
| Las Vegas Aces | +300 | +300 |
| New York Liberty | +300 | +550 |
| Indiana Fever | +900 | +1600 |
New York’s move is the largest. A $100 ticket on the Liberty at +550 paid $550 and at +300 pays $300, so the Game 2 win cut the payout by 45%.
Indiana shortened after a 99-89 win over Las Vegas in Indianapolis, where Caitlin Clark scored 27 points with 15 assists. Her 14 points and 11 assists by halftime made her the first player with a points-assists double-double in the first half of a playoff game, according to ESPN. The Washington Mystics (+10000) and Dallas Wings (+12500) trail their series 0-1 and round out the board.
The four leading prices carry different remaining risk. The Liberty have already cleared the first round. The Valkyries and Dream each lead their series 1-0 and can close out Wednesday night, while the Aces must beat the Fever in Thursday’s Game 3 in Las Vegas just to reach the semifinals. The Aces’ +300 did not move after their loss.
The bracket is fixed, and the leading teams share halves. The Liberty face the Dream-Mystics winner in the semifinals, and the Aces-Fever winner meets the Valkyries-Wings winner, so at most two of the four teams at +290 or +300 can reach the Finals. The semifinals begin Sunday, Oct. 4, according to NBC Sports, and either possible opponent finished above the eighth seed and holds home court in the best-of-five.
Wilson Leads Finals MVP Board
Stewart is +450 for Finals MVP after her 34- and 21-point games, level with the Valkyries’ Gabby Williams. Wilson, who scored 22 points on 5-of-11 shooting in Tuesday’s loss, holds the shortest price at +375. No Lynx player remains on the Finals MVP board at sportsbooks that list the market.
Wilson’s +375 sits close to the Aces’ +300 title price, which treats her as the likely Finals MVP if Las Vegas wins. Stewart’s +450 trails New York’s +300 by more because Ionescu (+1600) and Jones (+1800) also carry prices.
What Comes Next
The Dream and Mystics and the Valkyries and Wings play Game 2 on Wednesday night, with a Game 3 in each series Friday, Oct. 2, if needed. The Fever and Aces settle their series Thursday in Las Vegas, and the semifinals open Sunday, Oct. 4.