The first World Cup on home soil since betting became legal is on pace to be the biggest in history, and prediction markets are quietly carrying the action into states that never legalized it.
- Global wagers on the 2026 World Cup could top $50 billion, up from about $35 billion in 2022, which would make it the biggest betting event in history at roughly $500 million a match
- It is the first World Cup in which prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket compete with sportsbooks for American money, and they take action in all 50 states, including California and Texas
- Those prediction exchanges run under federal rules and pay no state betting taxes, even as state regulators fight them in dozens of lawsuits and the industry asks Congress to ban sports contracts
- US betting on the tournament is projected near $3 billion, and a deep run by the United States, which just won its group, could push that past $4 billion
The 2026 World Cup is on pace to become the largest betting event in human history. The most revealing thing about it is how much of the money will never pass through a sportsbook.
World Cup Betting by the Numbers
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon, in a projection first reported by the BBC, estimates global wagers on the tournament could top $50 billion, up from roughly $35 billion on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, or about $500 million per match. The math is not complicated. This is the first 48-team World Cup, up from 32, which stretches the schedule to 104 matches across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada and Mexico, up from 64 games four years ago. More matches, more betting. Add favorable North American kickoff times and the fact that roughly 65 percent of American adults can now legally bet, against about 40 percent in 2022, and the record was effectively set before the opening whistle in Mexico City on June 11.
Bigger Than the Super Bowl
To put the figure in perspective, Macquarie estimates the 2022 final between France and Argentina generated about $5.25 billion in wagering on its own, roughly three times what Americans bet on the 2026 Super Bowl. Flutter chief executive Peter Jackson, whose company owns FanDuel, called the tournament “the biggest betting opportunity we’ll have ever seen.” For an industry that treats the Super Bowl as its high holy day, that is a striking thing to say out loud.
Prediction Markets Change the Game
Here is the part most coverage skips. For the first time, a World Cup is unfolding while prediction markets compete head to head with sportsbooks for American money, and they are doing it everywhere. Kalshi and Polymarket operate nationwide as exchanges regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which means anyone 18 or older can trade World Cup contracts in all 50 states. DraftKings, which entered the category after buying a regulated exchange, runs its prediction product in 38 states. The strategic detail is the one that matters most: DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics deliberately offer prediction markets only in states where they are not licensed to run a sportsbook.
Betting Reaches California and Texas
That is how betting on the World Cup is now live in California and Texas, two states that never legalized sports betting and that together hold close to a fifth of the country’s adults. A fan in Los Angeles cannot open a DraftKings sportsbook, but can buy a contract on the United States to win its next match. These platforms operate under federal law, outside state gambling rules, and they pay no state betting taxes. While a licensed sportsbook in Illinois or New York hands over a large share of its revenue to the state, the prediction exchanges scooping up World Cup volume contribute nothing to state budgets.
Billions in Volume, and a Legal Fight
The volume is real and climbing fast. US prediction-market trading tied to the tournament is projected to exceed $2.37 billion, and Kalshi and Polymarket together hit a record $7 billion in weekly trading volume in June, up 13 percent week over week, according to Piper Sandler. None of this is settled. State regulators are fighting the exchanges in dozens of lawsuits, the CFTC claims exclusive authority over event contracts, and on June 22 the American Gaming Association, the Indian Gaming Association and the gaming equipment makers’ group asked the Senate to ban sports contracts outright. The World Cup is the stress test that will shape how that fight ends.
The USMNT Wild Card
The wild card in the American numbers is the home team. The United States won Group D outright, beating Paraguay 4-1 and Australia 2-0, its first group-stage title since 2010, and it will play its round-of-32 match on July 1 at Levi’s Stadium near San Francisco. Analysts put US handle on the tournament at a base case of roughly $2.8 billion to $3.3 billion, against about $1.8 billion in 2022, but a deep American run could push it past $4 billion. Caesars Digital’s head of sports, Dominic Hammond, said a long run by the US men would drive engagement spikes his company has never seen from a soccer event, with each match swinging the numbers.
Why the Industry Is Cheering
For the operators, that is the entire point. Macquarie expects the real payoff to arrive in 2027, as books convert one-time World Cup bettors into repeat customers and cross-sell them into higher-margin casino games, for a projected 2 to 5 percent lift in operator earnings. The handle headline will fade fast. The structural change, prediction markets quietly planting betting in every state in the country while paying no state tax, is the development that outlasts the tournament. For now, the fastest way to see where and how Americans can legally bet the tournament is to check the country’s US gambling sites state by state.