- A DraftKings machine-learning model, built in 2023, ranks each customer by the loss the company expects once that customer receives a promotion.
- In 2025 the highest-scoring customers received about $400 million in bonus bets and other perks, according to the Times.
- A second model, meant to spot customers at risk of harm from their gambling, never shipped, former employees said.
- DraftKings said its offers reward sustained, engaged use of its platform and are not aimed at customers because of their losses.
BOSTON – A DraftKings model that predicts which customers will lose the most money once they receive a promotion steered roughly $400 million in bonus bets and other perks during 2025, The New York Times reported Sept. 19. The company built the machine-learning tool in 2023, according to the investigation, which rests on internal documents and on interviews with more than 40 former DraftKings employees.
How The Score Worked
Inside DraftKings, one of the largest operators among USA gambling sites, the number was known as an elasticity score, according to The New York Times. The score was built from a customer’s play frequency, the day-to-day movement of the account balance and the share of wagers the customer had lost. Low scorers dropped down the list for offers. Customers the model labeled “elastic” stayed on it.
Testing the model fell in 2023 to Jayden Butts, then a data analyst at DraftKings, according to the Times.
Analytics work of that kind lifted margins on promotion-driven sportsbook bets by 13% in 2025, DraftKings has told investors, according to the Times.
A Parallel Effort Went Nowhere
Nestor Hernandez, a data scientist, told the Times that in mid-2024 he began a separate model, one designed to catch customers heading toward gambling harm before a crisis point. The model was unfinished when he left DraftKings in November 2024, and he later heard from two former colleagues that the company had halted it.
Company officials were scheduled to see the model in early 2025, another former employee on the project told the Times, and the meeting was called off that day.
Lori Kalani, DraftKings’ chief responsible gaming officer, told the Times the choice not to build predictive risk tools was a “collective decision” by company leaders, who did not regard the approach as “evidence-based.” DraftKings does watch customers for potentially risky behavior, Kalani said, as part of its responsible gambling program.
DraftKings’ Response
DraftKings’ statement to the Times said the company “rejects any implication that its marketing practices are unfair or improperly targets customers.” Its offers, the statement said, are “directed toward customers who demonstrate sustained, engaged use of our platform, not toward customers based on their losses.” Bonus bets of that kind are among the promotions DraftKings Sportsbook runs for new and returning customers.
On some of the internal analyses the investigation describes, DraftKings told the Times a “definitive response” was not possible because the company had not “seen or verified” the material.