- The Buffalo Bills shortened from +350 to +275 to win the AFC, the shortest price on the conference board.
- Buffalo shortened from -250 to -450 in the AFC East as the New England Patriots lengthened from +225 to +425.
- Buffalo beat the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16 to move to 3-0 despite committing five turnovers.
- Buffalo’s offense ranks second in the NFL at 0.18 EPA per play, but its defense ranks 25th in EPA allowed.
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. – The Buffalo Bills are +275 in the AFC championship odds, the shortest price on the conference board, after a 24-16 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday in which they committed five turnovers. The Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs share the next-shortest price at +500.
The Bills also shortened from -250 to -450 to win the AFC East, where the New England Patriots lengthened from +225 to +425 after a 35-6 loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Buffalo Holds The Shortest AFC Price
Buffalo moved from +350 to +275 for the conference title, and no AFC team is shorter on the conference board at USA gambling sites. Baltimore reached 2-1 with a 34-31 win over the Dallas Cowboys, and Kansas City is 3-0 after a 24-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. Both sit at +500. Jacksonville shortened from +1100 to +800 after routing New England.
| Team | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +275 | 26.7% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +500 | 16.7% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +500 | 16.7% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | +800 | 11.1% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +825 | 10.8% |
| Denver Broncos | +950 | 9.5% |
| Houston Texans | +1400 | 6.7% |
| New England Patriots | +1800 | 5.3% |
The gap between Buffalo and the two +500 teams is 10 points of implied share, a premium that already carries the 3-0 start. The case for Buffalo at that number has to rest on more than the record.
Five Turnovers, Still A 24-16 Win
The Bills closed as 7-point favorites but were tied 10-10 at halftime and did not lead until the fourth quarter. The five giveaways were three fumbles, beginning with James Cook’s on the first play from scrimmage, and two Josh Allen interceptions.
Cook still ran for 154 yards on 24 carries, and Allen scored twice on the ground to become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era with multiple rushing touchdowns in three straight games. Greg Rousseau’s sixth sack in three games passed Bruce Smith for the most by a Bill through the first three weeks.
NFL.com noted it was Buffalo’s first win when committing at least five turnovers since 1997, after 18 straight losses in such games. Five giveaways is an outlier rather than a trait, because turnover rates are among the most volatile numbers in football and tend to regress. Los Angeles fell to 0-3 with the league’s worst offense by expected points added (EPA) per play, at minus 0.19. An eight-point win over that offense is a thin margin for the team priced as the AFC’s best.
The Efficiency Numbers Trail The Price
Buffalo’s offense ranks second in the league at 0.18 EPA per play, behind only the San Francisco 49ers, with a 51.9% success rate. That figure has already slipped from about 0.30 after two games, pulled down by the giveaways. The defense is the weak side, allowing 0.07 EPA per play, 25th of 32 teams. Net EPA, offense minus EPA allowed, leaves the Bills at 0.11 per play, behind Kansas City at 0.16 and Jacksonville at 0.23.
Jacksonville has the fourth-best offense at 0.13 and the third-best defense at minus 0.10 allowed. That is the strongest two-way profile in the AFC on paper, and it is priced at +800.
The market is paying Buffalo for Allen and an unbeaten record rather than for a two-way edge. Three games is short of the four to six that EPA needs to settle, and Jacksonville’s numbers include a rout of a New England offense that ranks 29th, so the read is about direction, not a verdict.
New England Trails Buffalo By Two Games
Every AFC East rival lost Sunday. New England fell to 1-2 with the 35-6 loss at Jacksonville, the New York Jets to 1-2 with a 31-24 loss to the Detroit Lions, and the Dolphins to 0-3. Buffalo is the only East team above .500.
| Team | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -450 | 81.8% |
| New England Patriots | +425 | 19.0% |
| New York Jets | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Miami Dolphins | +12500 | 0.8% |
New England’s offense ranks 29th of 32 at minus 0.12 EPA per play, and quarterback Drake Maye has seven turnovers through three games, the most by a Patriots player in that span in 30 years, NFL.com reported. At +425 the Patriots are the only rival priced within reach of a Buffalo slip, and they visit Highmark Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 4, at 1 p.m. Eastern, where Buffalo is a 6.5-point favorite at USA sportsbooks.