- The Cleveland Guardians shortened to +300 from +450 to win the American League pennant, trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays at +260.
- Cleveland’s run differential of +11 ranks fifth among the six AL playoff teams, ahead of only the Houston Astros.
- Cleveland opens the Division Series Saturday against Houston or the Chicago White Sox, the two longest shots on the AL pennant board.
- Left-hander Parker Messick’s 2.56 ERA and the sixth-best bullpen ERA carry a lineup that ranks 27th in slugging.
CLEVELAND – Cleveland Guardians pennant odds shortened to +300 from +450 in a day, the biggest gain on the American League board, as the No. 2 seed sits out the Wild Card Series that opens Tuesday. That puts Cleveland second behind the Tampa Bay Rays at +260 and ahead of the New York Yankees at +325.
A Move With No Game Behind It
Monday’s schedule had no major league games, so nothing on the field explains the shift. It shows up only in how online sportsbooks price the bracket. Cleveland’s gain of 6.8 points of implied probability was the largest on the board, and the biggest drop belonged to the Chicago White Sox, who went to +1100 from +650. The Boston Red Sox, the other road team in the Wild Card round, lengthened to +650 from +500. The Astros held at +800, and the Yankees shortened to +325 from +360.
| Team | Seed | Odds | Day Earlier | Implies | Run Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | +260 | +250 | 27.8% | +86 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 | +300 | +450 | 25.0% | +11 |
| New York Yankees | 4 | +325 | +360 | 23.5% | +138 |
| Boston Red Sox | 5 | +650 | +500 | 13.3% | +78 |
| Houston Astros | 3 | +800 | +800 | 11.1% | -32 |
| Chicago White Sox | 6 | +1100 | +650 | 8.3% | +56 |
Odds as of Sept. 29 and subject to movement. Payouts, not forecasts.
A bettor who took the +450 holds a ticket that beats the new market by those 6.8 points, the early number that was worth having. The +300 that replaced it has to cash 25% of the time just to break even.
The Bye Carries The Price
Cleveland finished 85-77, one game ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central, and took the No. 2 seed, which sends it straight to the Division Series. Reaching the World Series takes two series wins for Cleveland and Tampa Bay and three for the four clubs still in the Wild Card round.
The run margin is the soft spot. Cleveland scored 678 runs and allowed 667, a +11 differential that is worth about 82 wins by the Pythagorean formula, three fewer than the 85 the Guardians won. New York’s +138 is 127 runs better than Cleveland’s, and the Yankees trail the Guardians on the board by a single notch, +325 to +300, with the Boston series still to win. The price is paying for the bye more than for the roster.
Pitching Has To Carry It
Parker Messick went 12-9 with a 2.56 ERA, 193 strikeouts and 49 walks in 186⅓ innings over 32 starts. MLB.com notes Cleveland can start Messick and Gavin Williams in the first two Division Series games, in whichever order it prefers. The bullpen posted a 3.54 ERA, sixth in the majors.
The lineup is the other half of that ledger. MLB.com’s guide to Cleveland’s possible opponents puts it 27th in slugging at .380 and 27th in home runs with 162. An offense that low leaves little room for a bad start, and a +300 ticket depends on those arms staying sharp.
Houston Or Chicago Next
The White Sox visit the Houston Astros at Daikin Park in Tuesday’s opener at 5 p.m. ET, with Hagen Smith facing AJ Blubaugh, in a best-of-three series that goes to a Game 3 Thursday if needed. The No. 2 seed draws that winner. Houston at +800 and Chicago at +1100 are the two longest prices on the USA gambling sites pennant board.
Cleveland went 2-4 against the Astros and 6-7 against the White Sox this season, samples too small to separate either from a coin flip, and MLB.com notes 11 of the 13 games against Chicago were decided by three runs or fewer. The Yankees host the Boston Red Sox at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday, and that winner draws the Rays.
The winner of the Houston-Chicago series arrives at Progressive Field for Game 1 of the Division Series on Saturday, Oct. 3, and the pennant board will move again once both Wild Card series finish, no later than Thursday.