- Baltimore is -11.5 on the spread and -700 on the moneyline, Minnesota -10.5 and -625, paying $14.29 and $16 per $100.
- Minnesota’s 10.0-point average margin backs its 10.5 spread, while Baltimore’s 4.7 trails its 11.5 by 6.8 points.
- Totals of 42.5 and 39 put Baltimore near 27 points and Minnesota near 25, against 15.5 and 14.25 for Tennessee and Miami.
- Lamar Jackson (back) was limited Wednesday and Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson (ankle) did not practice, with no other quarterback on a report.
BALTIMORE – The Baltimore Ravens and Minnesota Vikings are the NFL’s only double-digit favorites in Week 4, laying 11.5 points against the winless Tennessee Titans and 10.5 against the winless Miami Dolphins, both at home on Sunday.
Laying -700 And -625 Pays $14.29 And $16 Per $100
A $700 bet on Baltimore wins $100, so one upset erases the profit from seven wins, and Minnesota’s $625 to win $100 costs 6.25 wins per loss. A bettor needs the Ravens to win 87.5% of the time at -700 and the Vikings 86.2% of the time at -625 just to break even.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Profit on $100 | Implies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans at Ravens | ||||
| Baltimore Ravens (home) | -11.5 | -700 | $14.29 | 87.5% |
| Tennessee Titans | +11.5 | +475 | $475.00 | 17.4% |
| Dolphins at Vikings | ||||
| Minnesota Vikings (home) | -10.5 | -625 | $16.00 | 86.2% |
| Miami Dolphins | +10.5 | +430 | $430.00 | 18.9% |
Odds as of Oct. 1 and subject to movement. Payouts, not forecasts.
The spread swaps that cost for a margin. Baltimore has to win by 12 or more to cover and Minnesota by 11 or more, so a Ravens win by 8 pays a moneyline ticket and loses a spread ticket. Book-to-book gaps are widest on the underdogs, where the best number at some online sportsbooks is worth $19 more per $100 on Tennessee and $25 more on Miami than the prices above.
Low Totals Leave The Favorites Little Room
The spread and total together set the score each game is priced to reach. Baltimore at -11.5 in a 42.5-point game works out to about 27 points for the Ravens and 15.5 for the Titans, and Minnesota at -10.5 in a 39-point game works out to 24.75 for the Vikings and 14.25 for the Dolphins. Minnesota’s total is 39 at some USA gambling sites and 38.5 at others.
With so few points available, a cover means near-total control, something like 27-15 for Baltimore or 25-14 for Minnesota. The Ravens’ offense has the most slack in its number, because its 30.7-point average is 3.7 above the 27 it is assigned, while the Vikings’ 23.7 is a point below the 24.75 they are assigned. Tennessee averages 12.3 points and Miami 12.0, so both underdogs are priced to score more than they have.
Minnesota’s 10.5 Fits Its Results Better Than Baltimore’s 11.5
Minnesota has beaten Green Bay 39-22, Chicago 9-3 and Tampa Bay 23-16, margins of 17, 6 and 7 that average 10.0 points, half a point under its spread. Baltimore won 41-23 at Indianapolis, lost 24-17 to New Orleans and beat Dallas 34-31 in Rio de Janeiro, an average of 4.7 points that sits 6.8 short of its spread. Each favorite has won by double digits once.
Averaging each team’s scoring with the opposing defense’s points allowed puts Baltimore at about 25 points to Tennessee’s 19, a six-point game, and Minnesota at about 26 to Miami’s 13, a margin above 13. By that crude math the Vikings’ number has room and the Ravens’ is nearly double the margin the scoring supports, with three games and no opponent adjustment behind every figure.
Tennessee Keeps Games Close While Miami Has Not
Tennessee has lost by 13, 4 and 5 points to the Jets, Eagles and Giants, teams with a combined 5-4 record, so it would have covered +11.5 in two of its three games. Miami has lost by 14, 22 and 14 and would not have covered +10.5 in any of them.
The Dolphins’ schedule softens that. Their losses came at Las Vegas, at San Francisco and at home to Kansas City, three unbeaten teams that average 29.3, 32.7 and 29.3 points, and Miami’s 28.7 points allowed is below the 30.4 those offenses average.
Minnesota’s 3-0 Rests On A +4 Turnover Margin
The Vikings have four interceptions and two fumble recoveries against two giveaways, and turnover margin is the stat most likely to regress. It flatters a defense that allows 13.7 points a game.
Kyler Murray has also played one complete game for Minnesota. A concussion ended his debut on his 11th snap of the opener, Carson Wentz started the 9-3 win at Chicago, and Murray returned for the 23-16 win at Tampa Bay, where the Vikings scored 23 against a team that is 0-3.
Jackson’s Back And Jefferson’s Ankle Are Open Questions
Jackson was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a back injury, and Ravens coach Jesse Minter told reporters he was “dealing with something small,” NFL.com reported. Jackson has a 113.1 passer rating and a 69.7% completion rate, so a change in his availability would move Baltimore’s 11.5 further than any other injury on either report.
Minnesota receiver Justin Jefferson did not practice Wednesday after spraining an ankle on his seventh snap at Tampa Bay, and coach Kevin O’Connell considers him day-to-day. Tennessee’s Cam Ward, Minnesota’s Murray and Miami’s Malik Willis are not on their teams’ reports, so no quarterback change explains either number.
The final injury reports with Sunday game designations are due Friday, ahead of the 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Baltimore and the 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff in Minneapolis.