- Indianapolis is a 4-point favorite at -110, with moneylines of Colts -196 to -200 and Commanders +170 to +171.
- Jayden Daniels returned to limited practice Wednesday, and coach Dan Quinn said a decision on his left elbow comes by Friday.
- Indianapolis is minus-5 in turnover margin, tied for 28th, while Washington is plus-2, tied for 10th.
- The Colts and Commanders are level in net EPA per play, minus-0.07 and minus-0.08, so efficiency does not explain the four points.
LONDON – The Indianapolis Colts are 4-point favorites over the Washington Commanders in London on Sunday, even though Washington has not decided whether quarterback Jayden Daniels, out since a Week 2 dislocation of his left elbow, will play. Kickoff at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is 9:30 a.m. Eastern (2:30 p.m. in London), and Washington is the designated home team.
Washington’s Quarterback Answer Comes Friday
Daniels, who dislocated the elbow last season as well, went down on the final snap of the first half in a 37-20 loss at the Dallas Cowboys. Marcus Mariota finished that game and started Week 3, when his three touchdown throws beat the Seattle Seahawks 33-31. Mariota has 294 yards and four touchdowns on the season.
Daniels flew to London with the team and took part in Wednesday’s walk-through, and the NFL’s practice report lists him as limited. Quinn told reporters Wednesday it is “too early to call” whether Daniels plays, that the team will not put him on the field before he is ready and that Washington will have “a definite determination” by Friday. Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones is not on the injury report and told reporters Wednesday he feels good.
The spread is posted with one side’s quarterback unresolved, so Friday’s practice report is the news most likely to move it before kickoff.
What Colts -4 Costs
Across sportsbooks, the spread is Colts -4 at -110 on both sides. A Colts win by exactly four refunds spread bets, and five or more cashes them. Four of the two teams’ six games this season were decided by three points or fewer, so the number sits just past where most of their games have landed.
| Market | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colts -4 | -110 both sides |
| Moneyline | Colts / Commanders | -196 to -200 / +170 to +171 |
| Total | 47.5 to 48 | Over -105 to -110, under -110 to -115 |
At -200, a Colts moneyline ticket has to win roughly two of every three to break even, a steep ask of a 1-2 team whose net efficiency matches its opponent’s. The Commanders at +170 break even at about 37 percent.
The Efficiency Numbers Are Level
Indianapolis’ offense produces 0.03 expected points added (EPA) per play, 11th in the league, and Washington’s produces 0.01, 16th. Both sit near the league average of zero. The defenses are the weakness, with the Colts allowing 0.10 per play, 29th, and the Commanders allowing 0.08, 26th, so both are in the bottom seven.
Offense minus defense leaves Indianapolis at minus-0.07 and Washington at minus-0.08, a gap too small to carry four points. Three games is also short of the four to six that EPA needs to settle.
The matchups do not break the tie. The Colts’ run game is third in the league at 0.06 per rush and meets a Washington run defense that is third at minus-0.32 allowed per rush. Indianapolis’ pass offense, 28th at minus-0.11 per pass play, meets Washington’s pass defense, 29th at 0.24 allowed.
Washington’s pass offense, 12th at 0.13 with both Mariota and Daniels in the sample, faces a Colts pass defense that is 25th at 0.20, which gives the side getting the points the better of the two passing matchups.
Washington’s 132 rushing yards per game rank eighth, but at minus-0.14 per rush its ground game is 21st in efficiency, so the yardage has not turned into value. The Colts also play without receiver Alec Pierce, who went on injured reserve after the Week 2 loss at Kansas City and cannot return before Oct. 25.
Turnovers Are The Widest Gap
The Commanders’ own game preview ranks Washington tied for 10th in turnover margin at plus-2 and Indianapolis tied for 28th at minus-5. Most of the Colts’ gap is Jones.
He has turned the ball over in all three games, with an interception in each of the first two and then an interception and two lost fumbles against the Houston Texans, for five giveaways, and the Colts’ defense had no takeaways that day. Washington’s quarterbacks have thrown no interceptions.
Turnover margin is one of the most volatile numbers in football and regresses hard. That cuts both ways. Indianapolis’ minus-5 should improve, while Washington’s plus-2, a 3-to-1 ratio of takeaways to giveaways, is the likelier to fade. That is the best argument for the Colts being laid four despite a 1-2 record and level efficiency. It falls apart if Jones keeps giving the ball away.
The Total Assumes Better Defense
A spread of 4 and a total of 48 work out to roughly 26 points for the Colts and 22 for the Commanders. Indianapolis has scored 23, 30 and 19, so 26 asks for a little more than its 24.0 average. Washington has scored 22, 20 and 33, and its 25.0 average is lifted by the 33 against Seattle, so the 22 the price assigns is its median score rather than a steep cut.
The total itself sits below what these defenses have allowed. Indianapolis games have averaged 54.3 combined points and Washington games 55.7, and four of the six went over 48. The two defenses give up 30.3 and 30.7 points per game, so a total of 47.5 to 48 across USA gambling sites assumes both play better than they have.
Washington’s final injury designations come with Friday’s practice report, and NFL Network carries the game at 9:30 a.m. Eastern on Sunday.