- Week 1 unders are 96-79 (54.9%) since 2015 and 55% since 2005, well above the 52.4% break-even mark at -110.
- Books have posted Week 1 2026 totals already, from 39 for Jets-Titans up to 51 for Buccaneers-Bengals.
- Unders went 11-1 across the first two Sunday windows of 2025, when scoring fell to 20.7 points per game from 22.9 in 2024.
- A 42-year trends study found the under leans hardest, 57% to 67%, on Week 1 totals of 44.5 to 47.
SEATTLE – The under has hit in 55% of NFL Week 1 games since 2005, and in 194 of 361 (54%) since 2000, a gap wide enough to clear the 52.4% a bettor needs just to break even at standard -110 pricing.
A Modest, Repeatable Edge
The under’s Week 1 record is not a coin-flip trend padded by cherry-picked years. BetMGM’s own database has it at 55% since 2005 and 96-79 since 2015, a 54.9% clip across a full decade of games. Fox Sports Research runs the sample back further, to 2000, and gets 194 unders in 361 games (54%), a separate count that lands in the same mid-50s band.
Neither figure is dramatic, but the vig sets the bar low: at -110 on both sides, a bettor needs to win 52.4% of the time to break even. A mid-50s hit rate on a specific, definable slate is a real edge rather than noise, even if it will not turn every Week 1 total into a lock.
The edge sharpens inside the band where this year’s board clusters. ATS Stats’ 42-year trends study of opening weekends found the under hitting between 57% and 67% specifically on totals set between 44.5 and 47 – a band that covers six of this year’s 16 games, including the Patriots-Seahawks opener and Bills-Texans, both at 44.5. That is the pocket where slow-starting offenses and the -110 vig do the most damage to a bettor betting the over blind.
Why Offenses Open Cold
The mechanism is not mysterious: modern preseasons give starters almost no live reps, so first-team timing, protections and red-zone execution are all rebuilding in real time in Week 1, while defenses – fresher and running simpler, more conservative schemes early – have less to adjust to.
That shows up directly in scoring. Last year’s opening Sunday windows went 11-1 to the under, and scoring across the league dropped to 20.7 points per game in Week 1 of 2025, down from 22.9 the year before, according to Outkick’s review of the league’s offensive numbers. Every major efficiency figure – yards per play, net passing yards per attempt, yards per rush – fell alongside it.
The lean is not automatic. BetMGM’s own data shows the last two Week 1s split, with 2024 landing close to a coin flip before 2025 tilted hard to the under, and rule tweaks or coaching turnover can add just as much year-to-year noise as they subtract. A bettor leaning under still has to check the number in front of them against the matchup, not just the calendar date.
That number is already up for this year’s slate. Week 1 totals are posted for most of the board, running from 39 (Jets-Titans) up to 51 (Buccaneers-Bengals), with the Wednesday-night opener between the Patriots and Seahawks at 44.5 – squarely inside the range ATS Stats flags as the under’s strongest historical spot.
Bettors weighing that total, and the dozen others like it across gambling sites in the US this September, are working the same board that the states with online sports betting will be lighting up once the regular season kicks off.
NFL Week 1 kicks off Wednesday, Sept. 9, with the Seahawks hosting the Patriots, continues with a full Sunday slate on Sept. 13, and closes with the Broncos at the Chiefs on Monday Night Football.