- Atlanta is +1.5 on the spread and +100 on the moneyline at New Orleans, with the game total at 48.
- Atlanta won 35-14 at Green Bay as a 4.5- to 5-point underdog, and Penix’s 256 yards came on 25 throws.
- The Saints’ defense has allowed a 51.6% success rate, third-worst in the NFL, with three defenders out and Pete Werner questionable.
- Penix’s comeback produced 9.5 expected points added on his passes, but it is one game and 25 dropbacks.
NEW ORLEANS – The Atlanta Falcons, 1.5-point underdogs against the New Orleans Saints for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff, are getting 3.5 fewer points than the 5 they received at Green Bay on Sept. 24. Monday also brings Michael Penix Jr.’s second start since a November 2025 ACL tear, and the price already carries the first one.
The Falcons’ Spread Is 3.5 Points Shorter
Atlanta was a 4.5- to 5-point underdog at Lambeau Field, depending on the book, and +205 on the moneyline before it won 35-14. The Falcons are now +1.5 (+1 at another book) and +100 to win outright. A winning $100 moneyline ticket on Atlanta now profits $100, against $205 at Green Bay, and the spread offers 3.5 fewer points of cushion. Atlanta has been an underdog at sportsbooks in all four games this season.
| Game | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 at Pittsburgh | +6 | +240 | 41 | L 20-13 |
| Week 2 vs. Carolina | +2.5 | +120 | 43 | L 34-3 |
| Week 3 at Green Bay | +5 | +205 | 42.5 | W 35-14 |
| Week 4 at New Orleans | +1.5 | +100 | 48 | Monday |
Odds as of Oct. 5 and subject to movement. Payouts, not forecasts.
Part of the shift comes from New Orleans. The Saints were 3.5-point home favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sept. 27 and lost 35-27 after leading 27-22 entering the fourth quarter, which Las Vegas won 13-0. Quarterback Tyler Shough threw four touchdown passes in that game but also threw an interception and lost two fumbles.
The Saints are now 1.5-point favorites at home, two points less than they laid against Las Vegas.
Penix’s Price Rests On One Game
Against Green Bay, Penix hit on 18 of his 25 attempts for 256 yards, with one touchdown, one interception and zero sacks taken. His 9.5 expected points added (EPA) on those passes works out to about 0.38 per dropback, and his completion rate ran 8.8 points above expected. Cooper Rush, the starter in Weeks 1 and 2, threw four interceptions, hit on 56.4% of his throws and finished at minus 28.0 EPA, with a completion rate 13.4 points below expected.
Atlanta’s passing offense is still last in the NFL for the season at minus 0.35 EPA per dropback because Rush’s two games outweigh Penix’s one. The spread treats Penix’s 25 dropbacks as the new baseline, a sample too thin to carry that much weight on its own.
Robinson Meets A Soft Saints Front
The win at Green Bay also ran through Bijan Robinson, who gained 194 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries as Atlanta outrushed the Packers 242 yards to 17. The Falcons’ rushing offense ranks fifth in the NFL at 0.03 EPA per rush, against a league average near minus 0.10.
New Orleans is eighth-worst against the run at minus 0.04 EPA allowed per rush and ninth-worst against the pass at 0.13 per dropback. Its 51.6% success rate allowed compares with a 46.7% league average, so opponents stay on schedule against the Saints more often than against all but two other teams.
Kaden Elliss (calf), Carl Granderson (ankle) and Anfernee Jennings (knee) are the three Saints linebackers ruled out on the NFL’s final injury report. Pete Werner, a fourth linebacker, is questionable with a shoulder injury, and so is Noah Fant, a tight end nursing an abdomen injury. Atlanta’s questionable trio is all defense, with Divine Deablo (hamstring) and Yasir Abdullah (illness) at linebacker and Samson Ebukam (hamstring) on the edge. Penix carries no designation.
Atlanta’s Defense Is The Other Number
The Falcons’ defense is the unit the season-long data favors most. It ranks third in the NFL in EPA allowed per play at minus 0.07, third in success rate allowed at 42.0% and first against the run at minus 0.31 EPA per rush. That meets a Saints offense at 0.01 EPA per play, 15th in the league, and Shough, who has 6.3 passing EPA across three games.
The total of 48 on the USA gambling sites board sits 5.5 points above the 42.5 posted at Green Bay and is the highest of any Falcons game this season. With New Orleans favored by 1.5, it projects about 24.75 points for the Saints and 23.25 for Atlanta, between the 35 the Falcons scored with Penix and the 8 per game they managed with Rush.
Official inactives are due 90 minutes before kickoff. The winner moves to 2-2, level with the Carolina Panthers, who beat Detroit 32-26 on Sunday, atop the NFC South, where Tampa Bay is 0-4.