- The Ravens flipped from 2.5-point road favorites late Monday to 3- to 3.5-point underdogs, a swing of 5.5 to 6 points.
- Atlanta is -175 to -180 on the moneyline, its first time favored after being an underdog in all four games.
- Backup Tyler Huntley has thrown nine regular-season passes this season, while Baltimore’s offense ranks second in the NFL in passing EPA per dropback.
- The spread and 43.5-point total leave Baltimore with about 20 points, nine below its 29.0 scoring average.
ATLANTA – The Lamar Jackson injury turned the Baltimore Ravens from 2.5-point road favorites late Monday into 3-point underdogs at the Atlanta Falcons by Tuesday morning, a swing of more than five points. Jackson sprained his left ankle just before halftime of Sunday’s 24-18 win over the Tennessee Titans, and NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported Tuesday that he has an “outside chance” to play. Jackson then did not practice Wednesday.
The Number Flipped Tuesday Morning
Baltimore’s moneyline went from -140 to -151 late Monday to +150 to +157 now, and Atlanta’s went from +120 to +131 to -175 to -180. The spread moved in step with Rapoport’s report Tuesday morning, and the total slid from as high as 45 to 43.5 on the USA gambling sites board.
| Team | Spread Late Monday | Spread Now | Odds Late Monday | Odds Now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | -2.5 | +3 to +3.5 | -140 to -151 | +150 to +157 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +2.5 | -3 to -3.5 | +120 to +131 | -175 to -180 |
Odds as of Oct. 8 and subject to movement. Payouts, not forecasts.
Books split on the key number. The Falcons are -3 at some sportsbooks and -3.5 at others, so a three-point Atlanta win is a push on one board and a Baltimore cover on the other. Backing Atlanta at -175 to -180 takes a win rate of about 64% to break even, and Baltimore at +150 to +157 needs 39% to 40%. Which side clears its bar depends almost entirely on which quarterback takes the first snap.
Jackson Did Not Practice Wednesday
The same report called the sprain neither long-term nor surgical, while leaving open an absence of more than one game depending on how the rehab goes. Coach Jesse Minter said Wednesday that Jackson is getting a lot of treatment and the team will know more later in the week. Baltimore is 3-1, tied with Cleveland atop the AFC North.
The Line Leans Toward Jackson Sitting
The spread and total together put Baltimore near 24 points late Monday and near 20 now, while Atlanta moved from near 21 to near 23.5. Twenty sits closer to the 17.6 points a game Baltimore has averaged without Jackson since the start of 2019 than to the 28.4 it averages with him as the starter, according to the same Rapoport report, and it is nine below the 29.0 the Ravens have scored through four games this season.
A Jackson start would leave Baltimore getting 3 to 3.5 points in a game the books had it favored by 2.5 on Monday, so the current number is most generous exactly when his availability is least certain. A Huntley start would leave the line leaning on a sample of nine throws this season.
Huntley Is A Nine-Throw Sample
Huntley went 8 of 9 for 63 yards in relief against Tennessee, 7.0 yards per attempt, his only regular-season throws this year after 200 attempts over the previous two seasons. Jackson has averaged 10.1 yards across 96 attempts, completing 68 for 967 yards with six touchdowns and one interception.
In expected points added (EPA), the measure of how much each play moves the scoreboard, Jackson’s passes are worth 37.3 and Huntley’s 0.2, which together make up Baltimore’s entire 37.6 passing total. That puts the Ravens second in the NFL at 0.33 EPA per dropback, against a league average near 0.09.
Jackson also gives Baltimore 19 carries for 144 yards, 7.6 per carry, against Huntley’s four for 16. The defense offers little cover, ranking 20th in EPA allowed per play, and cornerback Marlon Humphrey and outside linebacker Trey Hendrickson also sat out Wednesday.
Atlanta’s Run Defense Is The Matchup
Atlanta’s defense is first in the NFL against the run at -0.31 EPA allowed per rush, against a league average near -0.10, and fourth in EPA allowed per play. Baltimore’s ground game, seventh in EPA per rush at -0.03, would have to work against the league’s best run defense without Jackson’s legs.
The Falcons are the mirror image on offense. They rank second in EPA per rush at 0.11 and face a Baltimore run defense that is 26th at -0.03 allowed per rush.
They outrushed New Orleans 205 yards to 50 in Monday’s 45-24 win, their second straight with Michael Penix Jr. starting after a 35-14 victory at Green Bay. Penix has completed 33 of 45 passes for 479 yards in the two starts, yet Atlanta’s passing offense still ranks 31st at -0.17 EPA per dropback because Cooper Rush started the first two games.
Friday’s Report Sets The Number Next
Jackson’s Thursday practice report is next, followed by Friday’s final injury designations and the inactive list due 90 minutes before the 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday Night Football kickoff in Atlanta.