- The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are both +350 to win the NFC, shortened from +400 in late September.
- The 49ers lead the NFL in net EPA per play at 0.22 but are 3-point underdogs at the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.
- The Rams lost 27-7 to the 49ers in Week 1 and rank 14th in net EPA, yet carry the same NFC price.
- The Chicago Bears shortened from +1200 to +750 and rank third in net EPA per play, ahead of the Rams and Seahawks.
SEATTLE – The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers are tied at +350 in the NFC championship odds, even though the 49ers beat the Rams 27-7 in Week 1 and the Rams rank only 14th in the NFL in net expected points added (EPA) per play.
Same Price, Different Seasons
Both teams were +400 in late September and have each shortened to +350, the top of the NFC side of the futures board for anyone shopping prices at USA gambling sites. Three NFC West teams hold the top three spots in the NFC title odds, with the Seahawks third at +450.
San Francisco has earned its number on the field. The 49ers are 4-0 with a plus-58 point differential, and their net EPA per play, the value the offense produces minus what the defense allows, is 0.22, first in the league. Los Angeles is 2-2 with a plus-2 differential, including a 30-26 loss at the Denver Broncos in Week 3, and its offense ranks 26th at minus 0.05 EPA per play.
| Team | Record | Net EPA Rank | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 2-2 | 14th | +350 | 22.2% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4-0 | 1st | +350 | 22.2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3-1 | 6th | +450 | 18.2% |
| Chicago Bears | 3-1 | 3rd | +750 | 11.8% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 4-0 | 5th | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Detroit Lions | 2-2 | 18th | +1800 | 5.3% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 2-2 | 23rd | +1800 | 5.3% |
Odds as of Oct. 8 and subject to movement. Net EPA rank is among all 32 teams. Payouts, not forecasts.
The Rams’ case rests on a defense that ranks fifth in EPA allowed per play, but a bottom-third offense limits what that is worth. Four games is the low end of the four to six that team EPA needs to settle, so the read is directional. The head-to-head result, the point differentials and the efficiency ranks all point the same way, which makes the 49ers’ side of the tie the one this season’s numbers support.
Chicago Grades Out Ahead Of Seattle And The Rams
The Chicago Bears are 3-1 with a plus-73 point differential, and their net EPA per play of 0.15 is third in the NFL, ahead of Seattle at 0.12 and the Rams at 0.02. The Bears still price behind both. At +750 Chicago pays more than twice what the Rams do for a team that grades out well ahead of them.
Detroit and Philadelphia, both 2-2 after Week 4 losses, each lengthened from +900 to +1800. The Bears visit the Green Bay Packers at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
Seattle’s Defense Meets San Francisco’s Offense
Seattle is a 3-point home favorite for the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff Sunday on FOX at Lumen Field, with a total of 46, in the first meeting of the season between the teams.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implies |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | +3 (+100) | +150 | 40.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | -3 (-120) | -175 | 63.6% |
Odds as of Oct. 8 and subject to movement. Total 46. Payouts, not forecasts.
San Francisco’s offense is the league’s best at 0.24 EPA per play, with a 56.0% success rate that also leads the NFL. It meets the third-best defense by EPA allowed, Seattle’s minus 0.07 per play, where a negative number is good. Seattle’s offense ranks 11th at 0.05, and San Francisco’s defense ranks 18th at 0.02 allowed.
San Francisco’s defense stays short-handed up front. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said defensive linemen Nick Bosa and James Thompson Jr. are not expected to return this week.
Seattle won the last meeting 41-6 at Lumen Field in January’s divisional round, on the way to winning Super Bowl LX, but San Francisco played without Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and tight end George Kittle. The spread, a field goal and the traditional value of home field, rates the teams as near equals, well short of the gap in their efficiency numbers, so the market is not pricing a repeat of that blowout.
Neither team has faced an opponent with a winning record. San Francisco’s four opponents are a combined 5-11 and Seattle’s are 4-12, so the raw EPA gap has not been tested against a good team. The 49ers lead the NFC West by a game over Seattle, with the Rams two games back, so Sunday also reshapes the NFC West race that sportsbooks are pricing.
Rams Host The Bills On Monday Night
The Rams are the same 3-point home favorites as Seattle against Buffalo, the AFC’s shortest price at +325, for an 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff Monday on ESPN. The total is 54.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Implies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | +3 (+100) | +150 | 40.0% |
| Los Angeles Rams | -3 (-120) | -175 | 63.6% |
Odds as of Oct. 8 and subject to movement. Total 54. Payouts, not forecasts.
The Bills are 3-1 and rank eighth in net EPA per play at 0.08, six spots above the Rams, so a Rams win would be their first this season against a team rated above them in that measure. San Francisco hosts Seattle on Nov. 29 and the Rams on Dec. 13.