- The Rays are -135 to win the AL pennant and the Guardians +115, after Tampa Bay was -170 before Game 1.
- Every Rays run in Game 2 came with two outs in the fourth, once José Ramírez let a grounder through at third base.
- Rays relievers have allowed six earned runs in six innings of the series, while Cleveland’s relievers have allowed one in eight.
- Cleveland hosts the next three games but went 41-40 at home this season, while Tampa Bay went 43-38 on the road.
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – The Tampa Bay Rays are -135 to win the AL pennant after squaring the American League Championship Series at a game apiece on Tuesday night, a ticket that risks $135 to win $100 instead of the $170 it took before Game 1. Tampa Bay’s 3-1 Game 2 win answered a 7-3 loss to the Cleveland Guardians in the opener.
The Rays’ Pennant Ticket Costs $35 Less Per $100
The pennant board at online gambling sites is down to the two ALCS teams, and the split moved both prices toward Cleveland.
| Team | Before Game 1 | Odds Now | Implies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | -170 | -135 | 57.4% |
| Cleveland Guardians | +135 | +115 | 46.5% |
Odds as of Oct. 14 and subject to movement. Payouts, not forecasts.
A Rays backer at online sportsbooks who waited now pays $35 less per $100 won. A Guardians backer who took +135 before Game 1 holds $20 more profit per $100 than today’s +115 pays, so the early number was the one worth having on Cleveland. The shift fits the schedule. Tampa Bay held four of the seven games at Tropicana Field before the series began and now needs three wins in five games, with three of those in Cleveland.
Ramírez’s Error Turned Game 2 In The Fourth
Cleveland won ALCS Game 1 on Monday, 7-3, with five runs in the eighth and ninth innings off Rays relievers Tyler Wells and Cole Sulser. Game 2 on Tuesday night was scoreless through three innings. In the fourth, Ben Williamson’s two-out grounder skipped between the legs of Cleveland third baseman José Ramírez, Victor Mesa Jr. scored on the error, and the runners moved up to second and third. Liam Hicks then drove both home with a line-drive single to center.
Cleveland rookie Parker Messick gave up six hits over five innings, and none of the three runs was earned. Freddy Peralta needed 99 pitches for six scoreless innings, with four hits and six strikeouts, and Bryan Baker closed the ninth for the save.
History Puts The Break-Even Between 54% And 60%
MLB.com noted that the club holding home-field advantage has won 55 of the 102 best-of-seven series that opened 1-1 (53.9%), and 24 of the 40 League Championship Series that split the first two games (60%). A Rays pennant ticket at -135 breaks even at 57.4%, which is 3.5 points above the all-series rate and 2.6 below the LCS rate.
The market is pricing Tampa Bay as a better-than-typical home-field team, and the season backs that. The Rays went 98-64 and outscored opponents by 86 runs, while Cleveland went 85-77 with a plus-11 run differential, a 75-run gap that works out to about 0.46 runs per game. Forty series is too small a sample to separate 60% from 57.4%, so the LCS figure does not make -135 a bargain.
Rays Relievers Own A 9.00 ERA To Cleveland’s 1.13
Through two games Tampa Bay’s relievers have allowed six earned runs in six innings, and Cleveland’s have allowed one in eight. That reverses the pregame read of the matchup. MLB.com’s rotation preview described the Guardians as taxed after a five-game Division Series against the Chicago White Sox, while the Rays swept the New York Yankees and then sat out four days.
Six and eight innings are small samples, and two Game 1 outings account for five of the Rays’ six earned runs. Games 3 through 5 are played on consecutive days, the series’ lone three-game stretch without an off day, and Ian Seymour and Kevin Kelly have already pitched in both games. That stretch tests Tampa Bay’s bullpen depth more than its starters.
Game 3 Opens A Three-Day Stretch In Cleveland
Game 3 is Thursday at 6 p.m. ET at Progressive Field on TBS. Griffin Jax is the Rays’ listed probable starter after posting a 3.53 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 112 1/3 innings this season, against a league baseline near 1.30 for WHIP, and Cleveland has not named a starter. Games 4 and 5 follow Friday and Saturday, and Games 6 and 7, if needed, return to Tropicana Field on Monday, Oct. 19, and Tuesday, Oct. 20.