Buccaneers Upset Cowboys 24-16 As 9.5-Point Underdogs

  • Tampa Bay won outright at +360 and covered the 9.5-point spread by 17.5 points.
  • The 40 combined points finished nine below the closing total of 49, so the under cashed.
  • Bucky Irving’s 165 rushing yards and three Dallas turnovers against none for Tampa Bay decided the game.
  • Dallas is +1200 to win the NFC, shorter than the +1500 on the board before the game, and Tampa Bay is +7500.

ARLINGTON, Texas – A 9.5-point underdog priced +360 on the moneyline, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Dallas Cowboys 24-16 at AT&T Stadium, and Thursday night’s first win of the season ended an 0-4 start.

Published On:

October 9th, 2026

Lorcan Palaca
Published: October 9th, 2026

Tampa Bay Cashed The Moneyline, The Spread And The Under

Closing lines across USA gambling sites show the underdog side sweeping every market.

MarketOddsResult
Tampa Bay moneyline+360Won 24-16
Tampa Bay spread+9.5 (-110)Won by 8, covered by 17.5
TotalUnder 49 (-110)40 points, nine under

Dallas closed at -500, a price that implies about 83%, the win rate a ticket on the Cowboys needed just to break even.

Jalon Daniels, a rookie the Buccaneers signed after the draft, started for the second time because Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb in Week 3, according to the team. A $100 moneyline ticket on Tampa Bay won $360 at +360 and $406 at the longest closing price among sportsbooks, so line shopping was worth $46 on the upset.

Tampa Bay Scored 17 In The Third Quarter

The Cowboys were up 10-7 at the break. In the third quarter Bucky Irving broke loose for 72 yards and Emeka Egbuka finished that drive with a 14-yard touchdown for a 14-10 lead, Irving added a 1-yard score, and a 41-yard Chase McLaughlin field goal stretched it to 24-10.

Irving averaged 7.9 yards on 21 carries, 165 in all. Without the 72-yarder he had 20 carries for 93 yards, 4.7 per carry, so the ground game was one explosive play on top of a steady floor. The Tampa Bay ground game produced 241 yards against 50 for Dallas, the Buccaneers held the ball for 39:21 of the 60 minutes, and Daniels needed only 25 throws, completing 19 for 189 yards.

Dak Prescott’s 316 passing yards came with two interceptions, the second of them to Alex Anzalone inside the final two minutes, and nine of his completions went to George Pickens for 130 yards. Dallas gave the ball away three times and scored 16 on 366 yards, six of those points in the fourth quarter after trailing 24-10. That gap between yards and points is how the total finished nine under its closing number.

Dallas Shortened To +1200 For The NFC Anyway

The Cowboys, 2-3 after the loss, are +1200 to win the NFC, the sixth-shortest price in the conference and shorter than the +1500 they carried on the board before the game. A home loss as a 9.5-point favorite did not lengthen the number, and the extra $300 per $100 at +1500 existed only before kickoff.

Dallas is third in the NFC East behind the 3-1 New York Giants and the 2-2 Philadelphia Eagles, yet the board prices it ahead of both. The Giants are +5000 and the Eagles +2500, so a Giants ticket pays more than four times what a Cowboys ticket does.

Tampa Bay, 1-4 and last in the NFC South, is +7500, 15th on a 16-team board and ahead of only the Arizona Cardinals at +15000.

Both Teams Play Oct. 18

Week 6 brings the Pittsburgh Steelers to Tampa Bay at 1 p.m. ET on Oct. 18, and Dallas plays at the Green Bay Packers that night at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

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