- The Los Angeles Dodgers are -157 in Game 4, the Milwaukee Brewers are +130, and Milwaukee is -1200 to win the series.
- Only one of 42 teams to fall behind 3-0 in a best-of-seven series has come back to win it.
- The Dodgers have hit the ball harder in the series, 89.7 mph to 86.0 on average, but trail 15-7 in runs.
- Milwaukee is -145 to win the World Series, ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays at +300 and the Cleveland Guardians at +550.
LOS ANGELES – The NLCS Game 4 odds make the Los Angeles Dodgers -157 favorites over the Milwaukee Brewers at Dodger Stadium Thursday night, even though Milwaukee leads the series 3-0 and is -1200 to win it.
Brewers Backers Choose Between +130 And -1200
Tyler Glasnow starts for Los Angeles in the 8 p.m. ET game on FS1, and Milwaukee has not named its starter. Milwaukee can be backed at online sportsbooks to win Thursday at plus money or to win the series at a steep minus price, and the gap between those two tickets frames the board.
| Bet | Odds | Implies |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers win Game 4 | -157 | 61.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers win Game 4 | +130 | 43.5% |
| Milwaukee Brewers win NLCS | -1200 | 92.3% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win NLCS | +800 | 11.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers win World Series | -145 | 59.2% |
| Tampa Bay Rays win World Series | +300 | 25.0% |
| Cleveland Guardians win World Series | +550 | 15.4% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers win World Series | +1100 | 8.3% |
The +130 moneyline pays $130 on $100 but cashes only if the Brewers close the sweep Thursday, and it breaks even at 43.5%. The -1200 series ticket risks $1,200 to win $100 and breaks even at 92.3%, yet it also cashes if Los Angeles wins Game 4 and Milwaukee takes any of the final three games. A Dodgers series ticket at +800 needs four straight wins and breaks even at 11.1%.
Only One Of 42 Teams Down 3-0 Has Won
A 3-0 hole in a best-of-seven has been close to fatal. Of the 42 MLB teams that have fallen behind 3-0, MLB.com reported, 32 never won another game in the series. Two of them, the 2020 Houston Astros and the 2004 Boston Red Sox, pushed the series to seven games, and Boston alone finished the comeback. “If we lose, we’re done,” the Dodgers’ Kiké Hernández said after Wednesday’s 6-2 loss.
Series leaders have closed 41 of 42 times, a 97.6% rate that sits above the 92.3% the Brewers’ price needs, so history alone favors the -1200 side. The Dodgers’ +800 breaks even at 11.1%, more than four times the one-in-42 record.
The matchup explains the difference. Milwaukee went 103-59 with a plus-214 run differential and Los Angeles went 100-62 at plus-201, only 13 runs apart over 162 games, so the Dodgers are a near-equal that fell behind. Forty-two series is also too few to price a comeback off history alone.
The Dodgers Have The Harder Contact And The Fewer Runs
Los Angeles has averaged 89.7 mph off the bat in the series, and 42.0% of its balls in play were hit 95 mph or harder, against 86.0 mph and 33.3% for Milwaukee. A league-average lineup sits near 89 mph and 40%. The Dodgers have still hit .165 with no home runs, gone 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position and scored seven runs, while the Brewers have hit .281 with five homers and scored 15.
The split is balls in play. The Dodgers are hitting .221 on them and the Brewers .393, against a league norm near .300. Los Angeles carries a .228 wOBA (average is near .320, and .290 is poor) beside a .286 expected wOBA built from exit velocity and launch angle, according to Baseball Savant, while Milwaukee’s .372 wOBA sits above its .338 expected figure.
Contact quality settles faster than results do, so the exit-velocity gap is a sturdier read than the scoreboard, though three games is a small sample and Milwaukee’s expected mark is still 52 points higher. The series has run closer than 15-7 without running even. A +130 Brewers ticket needs that .393 to hold.
Glasnow Meets A Lineup That Strikes Out 31% Of The Time
Glasnow is 5-2 with a 3.53 ERA over 13 starts, but his 2.73 FIP (league average is about 4.10) and 34.0% strikeout rate say his results have trailed his process. Milwaukee has struck out in about 31% of its plate appearances this series, against a league rate near 22%, so his best skill meets a lineup that has lived on balls in play. He walked five in 4 2/3 innings against the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS but allowed one run.
Robert Gasser, a rookie, blanked Los Angeles for five innings in Game 3 and handed a lead to three relievers. Milwaukee’s pitchers have a 1.67 ERA in the series with no home runs allowed and a .221 average against on balls in play, numbers that carry the same regression caution as the Dodgers’ hitting.
Milwaukee Is The Odds-On World Series Favorite
Futures at online gambling sites have made the Brewers the odds-on World Series favorite, with the Dodgers the longest price of the four teams left. The Rays and Guardians are tied 1-1 in the American League Championship Series, with Game 3 Thursday afternoon in Cleveland. The World Series is scheduled to open Oct. 23.
A Dodgers win Thursday would send the series to Game 5 on Friday at 9 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium, with Games 6 and 7, if needed, in Milwaukee on Sunday and Monday.